A bay full of fresh cyclone threat, Bangladesh is again in the firing line

The Bay of Bengal is suddenly abuzz with the possibility that another cyclone could leave the Indian coast and head for Bangladesh, months after Super Cyclone Hamoon made a giant landfall near Chittagong on October 25, affecting nearly 5,000,000 lives along the coast.  

 The third of the season 

   The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said Brewer’s successor may not approach the intensity of Hamoon, but is likely to  end up as a minimal cyclone. A deep depression over West Central Bay, located 420 km east of Visakhapatnam, 270 km southeast of Paradip and 410 km south of Digha, continued to develop traction, it said on Thursday. A deep trough is likely to continue northeast (off Indian coast) and further intensify  into a cyclone and cross the Bangladesh coast between Mongla and Khepupara with winds of 60-70 km/h, gusting to 80 km/h. in the early hours of Friday. This would be the third cyclone of this year’s northeast monsoon season  after the very strong cyclone Tej in the Arabian Sea and Hamoon Gulf. 

Rain in  Tamil Nadu

    Cyclone Beer left  an upper  circulation over the southwestern Gulf and neighboring Sri Lanka and sent north under its own power. The short and medium term outlook suggests a growing and retreating low that will maintain east-northeasterly winds over the Tamil Nadu coast for the next four to five days. Light to moderate rain  at  places over coastal Tamil Nadu, isolated showers on Thursday, Friday, Sunday and Monday and over Kerala on Sunday and Monday.  

 Unseasonable rains

    On its track, it will bring unseasonal light to moderate rains over  West Bengal coast on Thursday and Friday and isolated showers over  North Odisha coast on Thursday. Light to moderate rain  at many places over Nagaland, Kanpur, Mizoram and Tripura, isolated heavy rain from Thursday to Saturday and very heavy rain at isolated places over Mizoram and Tripura on Friday. Light to moderate rain is likely at many places over South Assam and East Meghalaya  with isolated showers on Friday and Saturday.  

 Next heavy rain

    Some global models indicate that as the cyclone moves over the Bangladesh coast on Friday,  the Indian side of central India may receive fresh rain from November 25, focusing on West Madhya Pradesh, West Maharashtra and the adjacent West Coast. This could probably be due to the interaction of  western disturbances penetrating deep over the northwestern Indian and northern Arabian Seas in the east-northeast of the Gulf, early signals of which are also available in the extended IMD view.

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