A fresh low pressure area will form over the gulf in three days, which will keep the monsoon at bay for the rest of the week.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects a fresh low-pressure area to form over northwest Bay of Bengal in the next three days, even as a remnant of its predecessor hovered over northwest Madhya Pradesh on Monday with ample ammunition. rain covers parts of Central India, North West India and West India. 

 A fresh spin 

 According to the IMD, a new cyclonic circulation has already formed over the East Central Gulf and neighboring Myanmar. Due to its influence, a low pressure trough is likely to form over the Northwest Gulf over the next three days. Businessline hinted at this development five days ago in a report on declining circulation of precursors. (https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/rain-driving-low-weakens-over-bay-models-hint-at-successor-in-10-days/article67276752.ece.) 

  The ridged monsoon trap was south of its normal position by midday Monday, indicating active monsoon conditions. During the 24 hours ending morning, rain occurred at isolated places over Uttar Pradesh and  Andaman and Nicobar Islands,  Uttarakhand, East Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam and Meghalaya  and severe at isolated places over Madhya Pradesh, Nagaland, Kerala and Telangana. 

 The deficit decreased by one notch 

  The current increase has helped reduce the total rainfall deficit by a notch to 10 percent on Wednesday, with Kerala leading the list of meteorological subdivisions (41 percent) by a huge margin. Jharkhand (-33 percent) is the next big casualty, with the other seven in the early to mid-20s. Of these, East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Nagaland-Mizoram-Manipur-Tripura can still expect significant rains before the end of September. 

 Short perspective 

 On Monday, a monsoon trough descended from a cyclonic circulation over northwest Madhya Pradesh (south normal) from north Andhra Pradesh coast over West Central East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and South Chhattisgarh. It brought extensive rains to Central India and adjoining East India, which remain under its footprint. The short to medium term outlook (over the next seven days) spoke of the possibility of light to moderate, fairly widespread to widespread rain, thunderstorms and isolated showers over many parts of the country. Scattered  light to moderate rain over parts of East, Northeast and Central India, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Telangana,  West Coast and  Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands. 

  South China Sea waves 

  Monsoon is currently in the last month of September, but it gets a little boost to the process thanks to waves from the neighboring South China Sea and the western Pacific Ocean, which are still active. Some global models now suggest that the good news could last until the end of the month. Contrary to the forecast, the withdrawal of  monsoon may be delayed in the process. Some US models see a prominent monsoon tail hitting the eastern parts of the country hard, followed by Mumbai-Konkan and adjoining western Maharashtra, with very heavy rains over parts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand till September 19. from active to  wet over the last 10 days (September 20-29).

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