As global oceans have warmed significantly over the past 50 years, this could affect the forecast for future El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said. On the other hand, Colombia’s International Climate Research Institute (IRI) said CPC’s El Niño advisory will continue into February 2024 with the La Nina watch issued in June-August 2024.
BoM said in its latest article Climate Leader Update: “Historically, since 1900, about 50 percent of El Niño events have been followed by a neutral year, and 40-50 percent have been followed by La Niña. However, the world’s oceans have warmed significantly over the years. the past 50 years. April 2023 and were the world’s warmest oceans in the period between January 2024. These changes could affect the prediction of future ENSO events based on historical activity, the BoM said.
Continued weakening
According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, ocean indicators show a continued weakening trend of El Nino, which began in June 2023, although it is ongoing. “Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and Pacific surface temperatures show a clear cooling, consistent with a weakening of typical events,” the BoM said. This view was supported by the IRI, which said: “As of mid-February 2024, El Nino conditions remain moderately strong in the central eastern equatorial Pacific, and key oceanic and atmospheric indicators are consistent with an ongoing El Nino event. The Australian agency said international climate models project further cooling in the central Pacific in the coming months, with four out of seven climate models showing the central Pacific is likely to return to neutral ENSO levels (ie La Nina instead of Nino) in April.
ENSO neutral
All models show a neutral ENSO in May, but remember that late summer and fall forecasts tend to be less accurate than forecasts made at other times of the year, meaning current ENSO post- May forecasts should be used with caution. According to the IRI, almost all models predict El The continuation of the Nino event during the late boreal winter of 2024 and the weakening of the spring (until June) then quickly, “ENSO-neutral conditions become the most likely category in April-June and May-July 2024. In June-August 2024, neither category appears to dominate, with ENSO neutral and La Nina almost equally likely. . July-September 2024 is the most likely La Nina category.The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has become neutral and will continue until at least April.
