Easterly wave to trigger fresh rain over South from Tuesday

Fresh rain from an easterly wave is likely to begin over southern peninsular India from Tuesday (November 14), although the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said strong easterly/northeasterly winds from the Bay of Bengal would continue to flare. Moderate to scattered to fairly widespread rain occurred over parts of Lakshadweep, Kerala, and Mahe and parts of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal on Friday and Saturday.   Isolated rain over Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, and Yanam and Karnataka till Saturday. The low-pressure area over the Central Arabian Sea that controlled the rainfall in the southern peninsula has weakened, but the IMD indicates fresh activity over the Bay of Bengal to come.   

Freedom from poisonous air

    An active Western Disturbance over northwest India,  currently crossing the low tide, has produced a cyclonic circulation over central Pakistan. This ensured the supply of moisture from the Arabian Sea to northwestern India. The result of light-moderate to fairly widespread rain/snow and isolated to scattered rain/snow in the hills over Punjab, Haryana-Chandgarh-Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan on Friday was a welcome relief from the high pollution levels of the winter. On the same day, isolated heavy rain/snow was forecast over Jammu Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh.    At the same time, a low-pressure trough may form over the Southeast and adjacent Southwest Gulf (east of Sri Lanka and southeast Tamil Nadu) around Wednesday (November 15). It may initially trigger the Northeast Monsoon, but its track remains in doubt as earlier model forecasts seem to direct it away from the Tamil Nadu coast towards the Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts. The accompanying rains can take a toll on the southern peninsula.

 Kerala, the  only major beneficiary

    So far, Kerala has been the biggest beneficiary during the Northeast Monsoon after the pinch it received during the previous Southwest Monsoon (June-September).  Tamil Nadu, on the other hand, was in the red until recently, but has returned to the green zone (normal) above the regulated +20% to -20% long-term average rainfall. Cumulative rainfall from October 1 to November 10. is  -13 percent in Tamil Nadu, while in Puducherry -47 percent.   It is much healthier +19 percent in Kerala and  -8 percent in Lakshadweep. But Karnataka state has a deficit of -32 percent, while Andhra Pradesh and Telangana have -74  and -86 percent respectively. On the whole, the heavier rain in southern  Tamil Nadu seems to have spared the entire state blush.

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