El Nino is fading as ocean temperatures drop, two global weather agencies say.

The ocean warming that caused the June 2023 El Nino weather pattern has peaked and is now declining. This means El Nino is ending, according to two global weather agencies. “El Nino continues in the tropical Pacific. Model projections and observations show that sea surface temperatures (SST) in the central tropical Pacific have peaked and are now decreasing. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are expected to return to a neutral El Nino south. Levels of Oscillations (ENSO ) in the Southern Hemisphere during autumn 2024 (March 20 to June 20), the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in its Climate Driver update on Tuesday.

SST anomalies weaken

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC), a branch of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), reported in its weekly update on Monday that positive SST anomalies have weakened slightly since December 2023. Pacific Ocean. “More serious damage occurred in the eastern Pacific,” it said. One weather indicator of El Nino, which is causing prolonged dry spells and drought in Asia, is that negative outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies have moved westward and equatorward of the Indian Ocean over the past few weeks. Pacific Ocean, while positive OLR deviations moved to Indonesia. Negative OLR anomalies are typical of El Nino periods and positive OLR anomalies moving towards Indonesia mean that the warm sea water phenomenon is ending.

Australia’s Late Monsoon

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology reported that most atmospheric indicators are close to normal. “The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has returned to neutral, with the latest weekly IOD index (up to 4 February 2024) below +0.4°C (positive IOD threshold) for the second day in a row,”. IOD events typically dissipate as the monsoon trough moves south into the Southern Hemisphere. Due to the positive IOD strength in 2023, the Australian monsoon was delayed. “Most model projections show the IOD to be neutral until at least April, which is consistent with the annual cycle of the IOD,” the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said.

Accordingly, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which influences the timing, development and intensity of major global monsoon patterns, including the Indian and Australian monsoons, is currently over the central Pacific Ocean. “According to international climate models, the MJO is likely to remain in the central Pacific for the next two weeks. If the MJO is in the central Pacific, it may also weaken the westerly central Pacific trade winds, possibly halting the cooling temporarily. SSTs Associated with a Decline of El Nino. SSTs Parts of the Pacific Ocean did increase slightly over the past week,” the Finnish Meteorological Institute warned.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *