FAO says India’s rice exports may fall to a four-year low of 16.5 million tonnes in 2023-24.

Growth in rice production  in Bangladesh and Nigeria, along with crop recovery in Cambodia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and the United States, is likely to offset shortfalls in Brazil, Indonesia and Thailand and stagnant production in India and  (mainland) China in the 2023-2024 season of September, said the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The United Nations Ministry of Agriculture said in its rice update published today in September that major disruptions in agricultural activities cannot pave the way for the recovery of rice production. If India’s export restrictions continue, its rice exports will decline for four years, FAO said. a minimum of 16.3 million tonnes in 2023-2024, and this in turn will reduce the export surpluses of Brazil, Uruguay and Vietnam in 2024-2025.

 No growth again 

  According to it, current indications point to a second consecutive season of modest or negative growth in world rice use in 2023-2024, which could remain around 520.9 million tonnes (milled). Among the various work components, the weakest prospects are in the use of nutrition. Due to the availability of more economically viable feed options, food use is likely to decrease further to 21 million tons from 18.5 million tons. Food rice will increase by 0.7 percent annually to 425.6 million tons, the UN agency said. The latest FAO forecast shows that world rice production could reach 523.2 million tonnes (mt) in 2023-2024. “While this level will be below the record 2021-22 crop, it would still represent a 1.1 percent recovery from the reduced 2022-23  level and a generous overall crop. 

 Index at 15-year high 

  The forecast is based on the rise of the FAO rice price index in August by 9.8 percent to 142.4 points. “At this level, the index was 31.2 percent above last year’s value and nominally at the highest level in the last 15 years. The index rose 11.8 percent from July, reflecting trade disruptions caused by India’s July 20 ban on white rice exports. “However, permanent quotations also rose by 13.8 percent during the month as erratic rains affected production. Following the recovery of steady demand in Thailand and China”.  On the demand side, purchases of Indonesian Bulog continued  and news of the resumption of imports by the Philippine government after a multi-year hiatus also supported demand amid heightened uncertainty and buyers’ fear of higher prices. “August’s business was otherwise largely limited to small volumes or pre-arranged sales,” the organization said.

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