Good news for Indian rabies breeders as Australians see rain due to positive IOD

A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), contributing to good rainfall over the Indian subcontinent and the African coast, is likely to develop in September-December, with all models pointing to such  development, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM).  IOD is the difference in sea surface temperatures (SST) between two regions or poles, hence a dipole. The forecast should bring relief to India as possible rains, especially from the Northeast Monsoon, will further support cash crops such as wheat, pulses and oilseeds. 

 T The IOD index  for the week ending September is 1.13 °C. This is the fourth week above the positive IOD threshold (0.40°C) and recent highs (above 1.0°C) indicate that the  event is very likely. If the IOD index remains above this threshold, a positive IOD event is considered to have started,” the BoM said in its latest El Nino update.

 Effect on El Nino 

 While the Indian subcontinent and the African coast will have better rainfall, it will affect rainfall in Indonesia, Southeast Asia and Australia. “A positive IOD typically reduces spring rainfall in central and southeastern Australia and can increase the drying effect of El Nino. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said the long-range forecast showed warmer and drier conditions than average for most of southern and eastern Australia from October to December. “The Bureau’s El Nino Warning remains in place, with an El Nino  likely to develop in the spring (September-December). If the criteria for an El Nino warning are met earlier, an El Nino event will develop about 70 percent of the time.  In the tropical Pacific, sea surface temperatures (SST) exceed El Nino thresholds and have warmed  over the past two weeks. Warming is likely and SSTs may remain above El Nino thresholds until at least early 2024. “The 90-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is currently -7.4, exceeding El Nino thresholds. Other atmospheric indicators have recently shown signs of a possible connection between the Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere.

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