January turns out to be the warmest on record; La Nina is likely to arrive during the third quarter.

January was the warmest of 2024, although the world continued to warm for the eighth month in a row. This follows forecasts that La Nina, which will bring more rain to India and drought to the Americas, is likely to materialize in the third quarter of this year, global weather agencies said. Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), said: “2024 starts with another record month – not only is it the warmest January on record, but we’ve also experienced a 12-month period of 1.5. °C above the pre-industrial reference point. The average surface air temperature in January 2024 was 13.14 °C, which is 0.70 °C higher than in 1991-2020. Average for January 2018 and 0.12°C higher than the previous warmest January 2020, C3S said.

In January, which was the eighth warmest month in a row, the European agency said: “The global temperature anomaly in January 2024 was lower than in the last six months of 2023, but higher than ever in July 2023. At the same time, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), a division of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, even announced that the transition from El Nino to ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) from June 2023 will be neutral. . Probably in April-June 2024, the probability of La Nina in June-August has developed. According to this, the probability of development of a weather phenomenon is 55 percent.

According to Copernicus, El Nino began to weaken in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, but overall sea air temperatures remained unusually high. According to the European Agency, January was 1.66 degrees warmer than the average January between 1850 and 1900, a fixed pre-industrial reference period. The global average temperature for the past 12 months (February 2023-January 2024) is the highest on record, 0.64 °C higher than the 1991-2020 average and 1.52 °C higher than the pre-industrial period 1850- 1900

SST anomalies weaken

Outside Europe, temperatures were well above average over eastern Canada, northwest Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia, and below average over western Canada, the central United States and most of eastern Siberia. The global mean surface temperature (SST) for January was over 20.97 °C, a January record, 0.26 °C warmer than the previous warmest January 2016, and the second highest for the month, within 0.01 °C from the August record 2023 (20.98 °C), was reported. Since January 31, daily SST has set new absolute records, surpassing previous records on August 23 and 24, 2023, Copernicus said.

According to the CPC, the positive SST anomalies leading to El Niño starting in December 2023 have weakened slightly over most of the Pacific. “The situation in the Far East Pacific region has deteriorated significantly, Change in OLR anomalies

Over the past four weeks, above-average SSTs have weakened over most of the equatorial Pacific, while negative changes in SST anomalies have been observed over most of the equatorial Pacific. The CCP reiterated last week’s observation that negative OLR anomalies leading to El Nino episodes were transferred from the Indian Ocean to the equatorial Pacific in December. As a result of the current El Nino phenomenon, 2023 is the hottest year on record, and every month since June 2023 has been warmer than the next. In India, the weather pattern led to the driest August in 120 years, while November’s rainfall was the sixth on record.

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