According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the monsoon is preparing to withdraw from the country with less than a week to go. Withdrawal may begin in the next two to three days from southwest Rajasthan, where an anticyclone has formed to suppress rain and clouds in the last few days.
The rain deficit is improving
The rainfall deficit has almost halved to 6% since the start of September – thanks to a late monsoon rally piloted by successive low-pressure areas, which prevented a bad situation from getting worse. The month so far (through Thursday, September 21) has brought 10 percent more precipitation than normal, apparently supporting a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). A positive IOD previously predicted a steady monsoon, which proved to be surprisingly true in 2019, when it reached a record. and pushed the monsoon further into late October than the normal end of the season at the end of September.
There may be bumps
Although withdrawal signs are expected to develop with a slight delay (the usual date is around September 17), short-term forecasts indicate that it may descend as rain cycles over eastern and central India. There are also indications that the Bay of Bengal may increase the spread around October 1 (just after the day the monsoon officially leaves the entire country). Its course and intensity must be monitored for signs of further development and intensification.
Kerala, worst hit
Kerala continues to have the largest single deficit (-38 percent) among the meteorological subdivisions, while the remaining seven affected subdivisions have managed to bring it below the -30 percent mark. However, the southernmost state has seen moderate to widespread rain in recent days and more is expected in the coming days. Widespread to fairly widespread rain is expected to continue over the state and western, eastern, central, and peninsular parts of the state for the next five days (through September 28) as beneficial systems persist or renew.
Extended view
IMD’s extended outlook for the next two days before the end of the month indicated the possibility of widespread to fairly widespread light to moderate rain over parts of East, North-East, and Central India, Uttarakhand, and Uttar Pradesh in northwestern India, Karnataka, Telangana and on the west coast and Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal on both sides of the peninsula.
