Precipitation decreases over the Bay, models suggest follower after 10 days

A low pressure area over the Bay of Bengal off the coast of South Odisha and North Andhra Pradesh  weakened on Wednesday after  heavy to very heavy rain over parts of Odisha and heavy rain over south Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Telangana. Interior Karnataka and Kerala. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said a cyclonic circulation continued over southern Odisha and its vicinity, which with a “properly behaving” monsoon passage could continue to rain in most parts of the country except  Rajasthan, Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi. 

 Probably a follower 

  The rain-driven monsoon trough passed through Bikaner, Guna, Mandla, Raipur and Kanagaratnam before sinking into the West-Central Bay. While it remains in this position, it leaves room for  a  cyclonic circulation / “low” to develop over the gulf. Some models opt for a follower spread / “low” for the next week to 10 days, while others signal a stronger system. It is expected to continue the passage of the monsoon in the third week of September  along the West Coast, East Central and East India and parts of the Indian subcontinent. On  average, two depressions occur in September. However, the annual fluctuation of their number is quite large. Since the first did not make the grade, the trace of the future orbit would be visible. 

 Trace of depression 

  The birthplace moves south in the Central Gulf in September, and troughs from here have retreated to the north (compared to the usual west-northwest direction over central and western India). Sometimes they chose a more western direction and reached Gujarat, Rajasthan or even Pakistan. Satellite images taken on Wednesday afternoon showed most of the region stretching from Gujarat to West Bengal  under variable rain cover (green), with isolated places experiencing heavy rain (pink). 

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