The coffee can has a deficit of 7.3 million bags in 2022-23

The International Coffee Organization ICO estimated a deficit of 7.3 million bags (60 kg) in the 2022-23 crop year, which ended in September. In its latest report, published in October, the ICO said world coffee production, which fell 1.4 percent to 168.5 million bags in 2021-2022, was expected to increase 1.7 percent to 171.3 million bags in 2022-2023.  World coffee consumption increased by 4.2 percent to 175.6 million bags in 2021-2022. It is expected to grow by 1.7 percent to 178.5 million bags in 2022-23. “As a result,  the world coffee market is set for another deficit year in the current situation, with an estimated deficit of 7.3 million bags in the coffee year 2022-23,” the ICO noted. According to the Apex Coffee Organization, global exports of green beans fell by 5.5 percent to 110.81 million bags in the 2022-23 coffee year, compared to 117.28 million bags in the 2021-22 coffee year. Deliveries of  Other Milds decreased by 12.1 percent to 22.11 million bags in coffee year 2022-23 from 25.16 million bags in coffee year 2022-21.    

Colombia’s exports decreased slightly

    Colombia’s organic food exports fell 11.2 percent to 10.77 million bags in the 2022/23 coffee year from 12.14 million bags in the 2021/22 coffee year. Exports of robusta green beans increased by 2.6 percent to 43.76 million bags in coffee year 2022/23  from 42.66 million bags in coffee year 2021/22.  According to the ICO, the total export of instant coffee in the coffee year 2022-23 decreased by 5.7 percent to 11.47 million bags, and the share of instant coffee in the total export was 9.3 percent, which is the same as in the coffee year. 2021-22. The export of roasted coffee decreased by 16 percent from 0.84 million bags to 0.71 million bags in the coffee year 2021/22.   

South American exports of all coffee types fell 11 percent to 50.59 million bags in 2022-2023, while shipments from Africa fell 1.4 percent to 13.53 million bags. Exports from Mexico and Central America fell 3.1% to 15.3 million bags in 2022-2023, while those from Asia and Oceania fell 0.9% to 43.56 million bags. The ICO Composite Indicative Price (I-CIP) averaged 151.94 US cents per pound in October, down 0.8 percent from September 2023. The average I-CIP was 151.58 US cents per pound, ranging from $145.99 to $160.  The Colombian Mild-Other Mild spread increased 38.5 percent to 2.02 US cents per pound. Arbitrage between the London and New York futures markets rose by 13.7 percent to 50.51 US cents per pound in October 2023. The intraday volatility of  I-CIP remained stable at 6.3 percent in September-October 2023.  New York and London-certified stocks moved at the same level. down direction

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