The increase in early September will reduce the precipitation deficit to single digits, more is expected

A monsoon surgeon view so far during the first half of September has delivered to the hilt over Central India, helping pare down the all-India rain deficit to eight percent as of Sunday from a seasonal high of 11 percent till a week ago, while global model forecasts indicated even more rain to come during the second half the month, also the last of the monsoon season. The high September numbers are likely due to a late-blooming positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phase, a nearer-home cousin of El Nino-La Nina over Equatorial and East Pacific, that impacts an ongoing Indian monsoon. Sea-level pressure lowers while surface temperatures look up over the western basin of the Indian Ocean (covering Southeast Arabian and Laccadive seas) compared to the East (adjacent to East Bay of Bengal) during this phase, boosting moisture carry and cloud formation. 

 Fresh ‘low’ forecast 

  The elevated rain phase could extend to the rest of the month and even into early October, according to most model forecasts. September has already seen a couple of helpful low-pressure areas at work as usual, but the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated a third may be rearing over the Bay during the next two days. It is close to the productive development of its predecessor, which has recently weakened over eastern Rajasthan and is disrupting the normal monsoon output schedule. For the rest of the month, parts of northwestern India and adjoining parts of western India (East Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat) are likely to experience above-normal rainfall till September 25, after which the monsoon flow will strengthen along the west coast. It is expected to bring above-normal rainfall over Peninsular India and the adjacent southern subcontinent. The states of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala benefit in several ways at this stage. 

 Late Withdrawal

 IMD’s short-term outlook said light to moderate rain, thunderstorms, lightning, and isolated heavy to very heavy rains are likely over east Gujarat and south Rajasthan on Monday and Tuesday, and north Konkan and north Madhya Maharashtra. Monday Isolated very heavy showers likely over western parts of Gujarat on Monday, very heavy rain on Tuesday, and very heavy rain over southern Rajasthan on Monday. Northwest India will experience light to moderate to fairly widespread rain, thundershowers, and isolated showers over the Jammu region and Himachal Pradesh on Monday. In eastern India, light to moderate rain, thunder and lightning, and isolated showers are likely over the plains of West Bengal, Sikkim, and Jharkhand from Wednesday to Friday; In the plains of West Bengal on Thursday and Friday; Over Odisha from Monday to Thursday; and over Bihar on Thursday and Friday. Isolated very heavy rains will occur over Odisha on Wednesday and Thursday.

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