The period of light rainfall in the southern peninsula is likely to end with the arrival of clouds from the Gulf of Lanka.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast isolated light to moderate rain, with isolated heavy rains over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, Kerala, North Coast of Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana in the early days of September, just as the monsoon was entering its final month. There may be isolated very heavy rains in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal on Friday. Chhattisgarh is likely to experience light to moderate, fairly widespread to widespread rain, thunderstorms and lightning and isolated heavy rain on Saturday and Sunday. Satellite images taken on Friday morning showed the clouds approaching Sri Lanka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala, where they have been pushed back for weeks by a stubborn and persistent anticyclone.

Combined effect 

What appears to be a failure of the normal monsoon predictions (June-September) appears to be the combined effect of the increasing monsoon-killing El-Nino over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and a slower than expected development of the positive dipole from the Pacific-Indian Ocean. (IOD) closer to home, which would neutralize the effects of El Nino in the distant Pacific. IOS has since tested positive, but it will be several weeks before an official statement is made, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology says. In fact, the unrest here is seen as an intensification of the ongoing monsoon revival over the southern peninsula and gradually over central and eastern India. According to the American agency’s updated forecasts, this could last until the end of the month.

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