The US Weather Service increases the chance of El Nino lasting through February 24 to 95 percent

The warm water weather phenomenon El Nino has continued to develop over the past four weeks, with high sea surface temperatures (SST) in the central and eastern Pacific in addition to the western Indian Ocean. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the US Weather Bureau said in a recent update that upper ocean thermal anomaly values ​​(above average) and thermocline inclination index (below average) values ​​are the depth difference  between western isotherms and the eastern Pacific reflects El. Nina. The agency has increased the chance of El Nino lasting from December 2023 to February 2024 to 95 percent. 

 Anomalies in Indonesia 

 Positive anomalies in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) weakened convection and precipitation were observed over Southeast Asia, the Philippines, and Indonesia. “Since mid-July 2023, positive OLR anomalies have continued over Indonesia”, said CPC, a branch of the  US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). More importantly, the recent Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) value for June-August is 1.1ºC. This is much higher than the CPC standard under El Nino or La Nina conditions  when  Nino 3.4 month outputs reach or exceed +/-0.5 ºC and constant atmospheric properties.

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